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为辨识自然与人为活动对河道径流的影响，基于周口站1955—2020年逐月径流数据，采用滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall、R/S法和赫氏指数(HHI)、变率指数(FI)探究径流演变趋势及其突变和持续性质，并通过河段生态基流调控值，研究径流演变对河道生态基流保障的影响，结果如下：周口站年径流系列呈不显著线性减少趋势，年内呈单峰型分配，汛期径流占全年的59.09%;HHI与FI的相关系数为0.879,变化趋势均为显著减少，其Hurst指数都>0.5,预示着未来一段时间年内径流分配不均状况将得到改观；受自然与人为活动作用，周口站径流在1965年、1986年发生了突变，突变后生态基流得不到保障的月份较突变前剧增，应采取措施开源节流，保障河道生态环境用水，提高生态基流的保障率。
Abstract：To identify the influence of natural and human activities on river runoff, sliding T test Mann-Kendall, R/S method, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI) and variability index(FI) were used to explore the evolution trend, abrupt change and sustained nature of runoff by monthly runoff monitoring data of Zhoukou Station from 1955 to 2020. The influence of runoff evolution on ecological base flow support of river was studied with the regulation value of ecological base flow in river reach. The results were that the annual runoff series of Zhoukou Station showed insignificant linear decreasing trend, and annual distribution was single-peak with the runoff in flood season accounting for 59.09 of the whole year. The correlation coefficient between HHI and FI was 0.879, and whose change trend were significantly reduced, and both Hurst index were greater than 0.5, indicating that the uneven distribution of annual runoff would be improved in the future. Due to the effects of natural and human activities, the runoff of Zhoukou Station had sudden change in 1965 and 1986, which made the months when the ecological base flow be not guaranteed increased dramatically. The measures should be taken to increase water supply and reduce water consumption, ensure water supply for the ecological environment of rivers, and enhance the guarantee rate of ecological base flow.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2026.02.006
中图分类号:P333.1
引用信息:
[1]王国重,李中原,张继宇,等.1955—2020年沙颍河控制站的径流演变及可持续性[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2026,21(02):58-65.DOI:10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2026.02.006.
基金信息:
河南省科技攻关计划项目(GG202230)
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
2026-03-24