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基于标准化降水干旱指数(SPI)和标准化径流干旱指数(SRI),结合Pettitt与Mann-Kendall突变检验和CEEMDAN趋势分析，系统阐明黄河流域短中长期气象及水文干旱的时空演变规律，并分析黄河未来干旱趋势。结果表明，从1956至2023年，黄河流域所有区域的气象干旱以轻度干旱为主，中度干旱发生的频率相对较高。相对而言，上游地区经历了更高频率的短期严重干旱，而下游地区则表现出更频繁的短期极端干旱。中游长期中度干旱、中长期极端干旱和下游中期严重干旱的发生频率高于其他地区。水文干旱以轻度与中度干旱为主，与气象干旱模式基本一致。下游利津站短期、中期和长期极端干旱发生频率明显高于其他站，而轻度和中度干旱的频率较低。上游唐乃亥站以上短期严重干旱比中长期严重干旱更常见，长期严重干旱的频率低于其他区域。上游唐乃亥、头道拐与中游潼关较少发生极端干旱，特别是长期极端干旱，极少发生。Pettitt与Mann-Kendall突变检验分析表明降水在1990年前后出现显著负突变，突变后气象水文旱情明显加剧。采用自适应完全集合经验模态分解算法CEEMDAN对干旱指数进行分解，发现降水干旱指数存在3 a、6 a和35 a的周期波动，未来气象干旱短期内略有缓解，而黄河径流干旱指数表现出长期下降趋势，表明黄河水文干旱将持续加剧，黄河水资源管理将面临更大的挑战。
Abstract：This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of short-, medium-, and long-term meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Yellow River Basin using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index(SRI). The Pettitt test, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN) trend analysis were employed to systematically analyze the drought characteristics and future trends. Results indicate that from the 1950s to 2023, meteorological droughts across all sub-regions of the basin were predominantly mild, with moderate droughts occurring at relatively high frequencies. Notably, the upper reaches experienced higher frequencies of short-term severe droughts, while the lower reaches exhibited more frequent short-term extreme droughts compared to other regions. Long-term moderate droughts, medium-and long-term extreme droughts in the middle reaches, and medium-term severe droughts in the lower reaches occurred more frequently than in other divisions. Hydrological droughts were primarily mild to moderate, aligning with meteorological drought patterns. The Lijin Station in the lower reaches, the frequency of short-, medium-, and long-term extreme droughts was significantly higher than at other stations, whereas mild and moderate droughts were less frequent. In the upper reaches above Tangnaihai, short-term severe droughts were more common than medium-and long-term severe droughts, with a lower frequency of long-term severe droughts compared to other intervals. Extreme droughts, particularly long-term extreme droughts, were infrequent at Tangnaihai in the upper reaches and Tongguan in the middle reaches. Mutation tests revealed a significant negative shift in precipitation around 1990, leading to intensified meteorological and hydrological drought conditions post-mutation. CEEMDAN decomposition of drought indices identified periodic fluctuations of 3 years, 6 years, and 35 years in precipitation drought indices. Future projections suggest a slight alleviation of short-term meteorological droughts, while the runoff drought index indicates a long-term downward trend, implying continued intensification of hydrological droughts in the basin. These findings highlight the growing challenges for water resource management in the Yellow River Basin.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2025.04.007
中图分类号:P426.616;P339
引用信息:
[1]颜亦琪,任立清,陶新,等.黄河流域水文气象干旱的时空变化特点及趋势[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2025,20(04):66-75.DOI:10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2025.04.007.
基金信息:
国家自然科学联合基金之黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2243203):人类活动和气候变化影响下黄河流域水循环演变机理;国家自然科学联合基金之黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2243229):黄河源区高分辨率雨量场构建与多尺度气象水文预报; 河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划(24IRTSTHN028):南水北调中线工程水源区经济发展与生态安全协同治理创新团队
2025-12-26
2025-12-26
2025-12-26