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近年来人们对"气候变暖"及其机制的争论达到了前所未有的程度,这可能是因为气候变化不再是单纯研究大气变化规律的科学,而变成一门与"减排方案"和"征收碳税"有关的政治与经济问题相联系,与国家经济利益有关的崭新课题."气候变暖"既与利益有关,就会难免偏离公正,偏离纯理论科学.本研究对国内外"气候变暖"最新动态进行回顾分析,得出以下认识和结论.1)过去百年城市发展,极大地影响了器测温度数据,如果没有对"热岛效应"进行矫正,无疑高估了过去百年全球升温的幅度;2)过去百年全球有所变暖是事实,但不同学者增温估算不一致.不仅升温幅度不确定,而且人类和自然因素对升温贡献各占多少也不确定;如果考虑到城市发展对增温估算的影响,过去百年增温应当比0.4℃更低,远没有达到历史上次级波动的变化范围.3)尽管过去百年地球有所变暖,但在万年轨道尺度上,现在地球处于变冷的大趋势过程中.对现在气候变暖更合理解释,是属于变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动;4)不论过去还是现在,大气CO2浓度变化总是落后于温度变化,即总是温度驱动着CO2变化,而不是CO2浓度驱动地球增温.
Abstract：In recent years,controversy about global warming and its mechanism have reached an unprecedented level.Partly,this is due to the fact that climatic change is moving from a pure topic of atmospheric science and evolving into an issue associated with carbon reduction,carbon tax and other national interests.Since having been highly economy-linked,the issue may inevitably deviate from pure science discussion and leave room for unfairness to step in.Based on in-depth review and analysis,we come to conclusions as follows: 1)Because rapid urban development in last century had affected temperature measurements,the heating island effect should be considered to avoid the overestimation of global warming;2)The contributing factors,human or natural ones,of the warming during last century remain uncertain,so the warming rate may be 0.4 ℃ or even lower,if the heating island effect is corrected,;3)At 10 000-year time scale,global climate is in its cooling trend,in contrast to the warming at 100-year time scale,and the latter can be explained more reasonably as one of secondary fluctuations of the former;4)Either in the past or at present,the change of atmospheric CO2 concentration has always lagged behind that of temperature.In other words,temperature drives CO2 but not vice versa.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2012.01.001
中图分类号:P467
引用信息:
[1]刘秀铭,李志忠,雷培文,等.辨析“气候变暖”[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2012,7(01):1-11.DOI:10.19687/j.cnki.1673-7105.2012.01.001.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(41072124、40830105、40721061); 福建省公益类科研院所专项基金(2010R1037-3)
2012-03-15
2012-03-15